Sunday, 14. February 2010
How strong is the correlation between recruiting and your final AP ranking?
I have decided to find out using some of the colleges that have had stellar recruiting classes throughout the last decade. Is college football recruiting the most important ingredient to a successful program?
Let’s take a look first at the team recruiting rankings since 2002 according to Scout.
|
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
Avg |
| Texas |
1 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
8.4 |
| Oklahoma |
2 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
30 |
13 |
10 |
9.8 |
| Michigan |
19 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
14 |
9.1 |
| Ohio State |
3 |
25 |
11 |
7 |
13 |
16 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
| Florida |
20 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
21 |
9.9 |
| Florida St |
6 |
12 |
4 |
3 |
12 |
33 |
8 |
18 |
12 |
| Miami |
4 |
6 |
3 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
3 |
24 |
9.9 |
| LSU |
15 |
2 |
2 |
19 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
7.5 |
| Georgia |
9 |
11 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
7.5 |
| Tennessee |
5 |
6 |
9 |
1 |
24 |
4 |
35 |
8 |
11.5 |
| A&M |
8 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
26 |
15 |
2 |
15.4 |
| Notre Dame |
13 |
5 |
30 |
27 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
23 |
14.5 |
| Alabama |
37 |
45 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
22 |
1 |
2 |
20 |
| Penn State |
16 |
50 |
12 |
28 |
6 |
19 |
41 |
11 |
22.9 |
| USC |
12 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
9 |
5.1 |
I decided to start with the Final AP ranking starting in 2003. I felt that 2002 was too early to start to get any sort of a read on how the 2002 recruiting class is affecting the outcome of games. 2003 may be too easrly as well, but I went ahead and made that the first year. By that time, the players from the 2002 class at least have the chance to be a sophomore and contributing. In the case that a team received zero AP votes, I chose a standard 40th place. This is actually probably too good of a ranking as the AP usually has others receiving votes that place them well into the 30’s. I did not want to let those years be too detrimental though, so I decided on 40 as the number.
|
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
Avg |
| Texas |
12 |
5 |
1 |
13 |
10 |
4 |
2 |
6.7 |
| Oklahoma |
3 |
3 |
22 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
26 |
11.1 |
| Michigan |
6 |
14 |
28 |
8 |
18 |
40 |
40 |
22 |
| Ohio State |
4 |
20 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
7 |
| Florida |
24 |
26 |
12 |
1 |
13 |
1 |
3 |
11.4 |
| Florida St |
11 |
15 |
23 |
40 |
40 |
21 |
34 |
26.3 |
| Miami |
5 |
11 |
17 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
19 |
24.6 |
| LSU |
2 |
16 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
28 |
17 |
10.4 |
| Georgia |
7 |
7 |
10 |
23 |
2 |
13 |
33 |
13.6 |
| Tennessee |
15 |
13 |
40 |
25 |
12 |
40 |
40 |
26.4 |
| A&M |
40 |
28 |
40 |
30 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
36.9 |
| Notre Dame |
40 |
40 |
9 |
17 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
32.3 |
| Alabama |
40 |
40 |
8 |
40 |
40 |
6 |
1 |
25 |
| Penn State |
40 |
40 |
40 |
24 |
27 |
8 |
9 |
26.9 |
| USC |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
22 |
5.1 |
So, who are the winners and losers in this particular assessment?
Teams that out-performed their recruit ranking over the last eight years?
Texas and Ohio State.
Both have managed to finish a few spots higher, on average, than one would expect just looking at their recruiting rankings.
Teams that were close to or barely missed performing exactly as their recruiting class rankings would suggest?
USC, Penn State, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma
USC was particularly impressive from this group. It is hard to live up to the expectations they have year in and year out. They have recruited flawlessly and their seasons have reflected that in every year except for this past year. Alabama did not really start to kick it into high gear in recruiting until Saban took over, and they were rewarded soon thereafter with another National Championship. LSU, USC and Oklahoma have all recruited too well to ever finish outside of the Top 20, so those seasons have to be considered major disappointments.
Teams that have tragically underperformed?
Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, Tennessee and Michigan
Notre Dame and Texas A&M lead the charge here. How have the Irish and Aggies done so bad over the past eight years? A&M particularly has fell short of expectations. The Aggies have had eight straight years of recruiting classes inside the top 26. They have had seven straight years of finishing outside of the top 26 in the final AP Poll. I am not sure how this has happened, but it has to be a major disappointment. Notre Dame is not too far behind, but they have at least finished in the Top 20 a time or two over the past few years. Tennessee should be a perennial top 15 team, yet they have finished outside of the AP Poll entirely three of the last five years. Miami and Florida State are still recruiting like a Top 10 team, but they have been out of the limelight in college football for the past five years.
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Sunday, 14. February 2010
Next in Line at the Big 12 Schools
It’s the way of college football. It’s why everyone follows college football recruiting as
if it is its own sport. The jerseys stay the same, but the players always change.
Who are going to be the new stars of the Big 12 Conference? Which players are going to
have the hometown fans lined up early at the ticket offices trying to catch a glimpse?
I have compiled all the data, and I have done all the leg work for you.
Keep reading to find out.
Click here to check out this year’s Big 12 Schedule
Baylor
Ivory Wade, Sophomore, Offensive Guard
Wade was a freshman last year out of Dickinson, TX. It took him a while to crack the
starting lineup, but once he did he was there to stay. For a true freshman to start
at a position along the offensive line, you know he must be etremely talented. Baylor
has had a good history recently of turning out pro caliber offensive linemen. Wade, standing
at 6′5″ 315 pounds, could be the next in line for the Bears. He made some all-freshman
teams last year, and I expect him to contend for an all Big 12 spot this year.
Colorado
Ryan Deehan, Junior, Tight End
Deehan was a solid contributor for the Buffs in his sophomore season. The three tight ends for
Colorado last year, Geer, Devenny and Deehan combined for 59 catches and over 600 yards.
Geer and Devenny were both seniors, so that opens things up for Deehan to fill the void.
He should be able to build upon a 10 catch 91 yard sophomore season this year. Tyler Hansen will
more than likely be running for his life a lot againt his year, meaning that his drop off to the
tight end could be a staple in the Colorado attack.
Iowa State
Darius Darks, Junior, Wide Receiver
Darks is a junior from out of Austin, TX. He has already been a nice part of the Cyclones offense, but
his production should really pick up this year with the departure of number one receiver Marquis Hamilton.
Darks caught 28 balls for 303 yards and 2 td’s a year ago. Darks had an even better freshman season with
49 catches for 477 yards receiving. An injury set him back a little last year, but this will be his year
really break out and show the rest of the Big 12 what he is about.
Kansas
Toben Opurum, Sophomore, Running Back
Opurum has already seen plenty of action for the Jayhawks. He was probably their more dangerous back last year
if you just look at the data with unbiased eyes. Jake Sharp was a warrior for Kansas, and Mangino stuck by
his guy, but Opurum was the back opposing defenses did not want to see. Opurum is a 6′2″ 235 pound bowling
ball. This past year as a true freshman, Opurum put up 554 yards and 9 td’s on the ground.
With Sharp graduating, I expect Opurum to put up first team All Big 12 type numbers this year barring
injury. Kansas may have a down year, but Jayhawk fans should get their tickets now if only to see this guy.
Kansas State
Brodrick Smith, Sophomore, Wide Receiver
Smith sat out last year after transferring from Minnesota following his true freshman season. For the gophers,
Smith logged time in 12 games as a true freshman. He only caught a couple of balls, but the athleticism and ability
are both there. Kansas State is losing a lot of firepower in the receiving crew with Brandon Banks and Snipes
having used up their eligibility. Smith should be an immediate difference maker for the Wildcats.
Missouri
Jerrel Jackson, Junior, Wide Receiver
Jackson caught 37 balls for 458 yards last year as a sophomore. Of that, 19 catches and 274 yards came in the
last three regular season games. This means to me that he was becoming more and more a part of the offense as the
season went forward. Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, the two leading receivers for the tigers a year ago
both graduated, so even more of the burden is going to fall on Jackson. I believe that he is ready to take the hits
and become to number one receiver for the Tigers every Saturday.
Nebraska
Cody Green, Sophomore, Quarterback
Green was probably better than Zac Lee towards the end of the season. Lee was the safer choice though, so he
remained the starter. Green is 6′4″ 220 pounds and can run like a deer. He has a stronger arm than Lee, he
is faster than Lee and will probably make more wise decisions than Lee by the midway point of this season.
Cornhusker fans have a lot to be excited about with three more years of watching Cody Green at the quarterback
position.
Oklahoma
Jaz Reynolds, Sophomore, Wide Receiver
Reynolds did not catch a ball in six of the first nine games for the Sooners. In the last four, including the bowl game,
8 balls for 180 yards. The even better part for the Sooners was that he was just a true freshman and looked good catching
those balls. He has size and speed and appears to be a natural receiver. The Sooners have a lot of talented receivers,
but I feel like the passing game as a whole will be better this year for Oklahoma and Reynolds showed enough to get more balls
thrown his way.
Oklahoma State
Brandon Weeden, Junior, Quarterback
Weeden joined the Cowboys after a few years of kicking around in minor league baseball. This means he was 26 years old last
year as a sophomore. He has the maturity to handle the quarterback position now that Zac Robinson has moved on after what seemed
like a 7 year career with Oklahoma State. Weeden is a big, strong armed guy, standing at 6′4″ 215 pounds. He performed well
in sot duty last year when Robinson was out. Weeden’s game against Colorado, replacing an ineffective Alex Cate, was very impressive.
He went 10-15 for 168 yards and 2 td’s with no interceptions. He will have a fight on his hands to win the starting job, but he
should win if his performance to date is any indication.
Texas
Christian Scott, Junior, Strong Safety
Scott played a bit in 2008 as a true freshman. He saw a lot of special teams action as well as some time at safety. He performed
particularly well against Kansas after Blake Gideon was injured, laying a couple of big licks and causing and recovering a fumble.
Scott was expected to compete for a starting position in 2009, however academic issues held him out throughout the entire regular season.
He played some special teams in the MNC game against Alabama. With Earl Thomas going pro, this opens the door for a guy like Christian
Scott to step in and take over. He has the experience and the ability to be an all-conference type defender for the Horns.
Texas A&M
Christine Michael, Sophomore, Running Back
It was hard to justify putting Michael here, not because he is does not deserve it, but because he is probably already pretty well known
throughout the Big 12. Michael was a true freshman out of Beaumont West Brook last year. He rushed for 844 yards and 10 td’s at a 5.1 ypc
clip. He split carries with Cyrus Gray a lot last year, but I think Michael will start to see more and more of the carries this year
as his talent allows him to distance himself from Gray. Michael is a future NFL running back, and he will begin to dominate this year.
Texas Tech
Pearlie Graves, Freshman, Defensive Line
It may be unclear where Graves will play along the line now that the Red Raiders are switching to a 3-4, but his talent is undeniable.
Originally committed to Michigan, he switched his commitment at the end of the process and decided to go to Lubbock. He redshirted
last year, but he would have been one of the first few defensive tackles off the bench had he played. The Red Raiders just need to hope
he stays put and does not contemplate moving on now that Leach is gone. Graves could be a monster.
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Thursday, 11. February 2010
The skinny on the 2010 Big 12 football schedules as well as predictions on which two teams are likely to meet up for the 2010 Big 12 Championship game.
Toughest Non-Conference Schedule
Colorado has games at California and at home against Georgia. While the Bulldogs may have been done a bit last year,
they came on strong at the end with an impressive bowl victory over A&M. California is always in the thick of things in the Pac-10.
Next year should be no different for them. Colorado State is coming off of a dismal 3-9 campaign, but they always play the Buffs tough.
Hawaii is also coming off of a tough season, but they should be an adequate foe for Colorado.
Runner-up: Oklahoma has to play Florida State and Air Force at home as well as Cincinnati on the road. While Cincy may not be as good
as last year, they will be tough.
Easiest Non-Conference Schedule
Oklahoma State starts off their season with Washington State who has quickly become one of the worst teams in the entire FBS.
Next the Cowboys have lined up Troy and Tulsa. Give Tulsa their credit last year for having a good season, but they have been overmatched when
playing the big boys. The Cowboys then finish things off with the powerhouse out in Louisiana. No, not LSU, but ULALA. If OSU loses any of
their non-conference games they could be in deep trouble come conference time.
Runner up: Texas has been slowly but surely getting worse and worse in their non-conference scheduling. They have UCLA and that is about it.
When UCLA is the one you are hanging your hat on, that speaks volumes.
Easiest Road to Big 12 Championship Game in the North
Nebraska has to be the choice here. The Cornhuskers get Missouri, Kansas and Colorado all at home. Kansas State is the lone obstacle as far as tough
divisional road games. Kansas State has too many tough road games though. Nebraska will probably be the best Big 12 North team, which will also make
their road easier. Go ahead and get your Big 12 Championship tickets and hotel accomodations laid out Husker fans.
Runner up: Kansas has away games at Baylor, Iowa State, Nebraska and Missouri. If they can win two of those they could have a shot.
Easiest Road to Big 12 Championship Game in the South
Oklahoma has Iowa State, Colorado and Missouri from the North this year. It does not get much easier than that threesome from that division.
The Sooners have Texas Tech at home which is good because they have struggled in Lubbock of late. But should the Sooner fans buy their Big 12 Championship tickets now?
Runner up: Texas has Nebraska on the road and also has to tangle with Kansas State in Manhattan but their sheer talent could allow them to overcome.
So, which two fan bases are going to need to start scouting out good hotels and championship game ticket deals?
Although the Sooners may have an easier road, I still think that Texas will beat Oklahoma on a neutral field, making it doubly difficult for Oklahoma to get back in the race. I see a Texas-Nebraska rematch in the 2010 Big 12 Championship Game this December.
Big 12 Schedules for the 2010 College Football Season
Baylor
9/4 Sam Houston State
9/11 Buffalo
9/18 @ Tcu
9/25 @ Rice
10/2 Kansas
10/9 Texas Tech
10/16 @ Colorado
10/23 Kansas State
10/30 @ Texas
11/6 @ Oklahoma State
11/13 Texas A&M
11/20 Oklahoma
Colorado
9/4 Colorado State
9/11 @ California
9/18 Hawaii
10/2 Georgia
10/9 @ Missouri
10/16 Baylor
10/23 Texas Tech
10/30 @ Oklahoma
11/6 @ Kansas
11/13 Iowa State
11/20 Kansas State
11/27 @ Nebraska
Iowa State
9/4 Northern Illinois
9/11 @ Iowa
9/18 Utah
9/25 Nothern Iowa
10/2 Texas Tech
10/9 @ Kansas State
10/16 @ Oklahoma
10/23 @ Texas
10/30 Kansas
11/6 Nebraska
11/13 @ Colorado
11/20 Missouri
Kansas
9/4 North Dakota State
9/11 Georgia Tech
9/18 @ Southern Miss
9/25 New Mexico State
10/2 @ Baylor
10/16 Kansas State
10/23 Texas A&M
10/30 @ Iowa State
11/6 Colorado
11/13 @ Nebraska
11/20 Oklahoma State
11/27 @ Missouri
Kansas State
9/4 UCLA
9/11 Missouri State
9/25 Central Florida
10/2 Nebraska
10/9 @ Iowa State
10/16 @ Kansas
10/23 @ Baylor
10/30 Oklahoma State
11/6 Texas
11/13 @ Missouri
11/20 @ Colorado
11/27 @ North Texas
Missouri
9/4 Illinois
9/11 McNeese State
9/18 San Diego State
9/25 Miami(OH)
10/9 Colorado
10/16 @ Texas A&M
10/23 Oklahoma
10/30 @ Nebraska
11/6 @ Texas Tech
11/13 Kansas State
11/20 @ Iowa State
11/27 Kansas
Nebraska
9/4 Western Kentucky
9/11 Idaho
9/18 @ Washington
9/25 South Dakota State
10/2 @ Kansas State
10/16 Texas
10/23 @ Oklahoma State
10/30 Missouri
11/6 @ Iowa State
11/13 Kansas
11/20 @ Texas A&M
11/27 Colorado
Oklahoma
9/4 Utah State
9/11 Florida State
9/18 Air Force
9/25 @ Cincinnati
10/2 Texas
10/16 Iowa State
10/23 @ Missouri
10/30 Colorado
11/6 @ Texas A&M
11/13 Texas Tech
11/20 @ Baylor
11/27 @ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
9/4 Washington State
9/11 Troy
9/18 Tulsa
9/25 Louisiana Lafayette
10/2 Texas A&M
10/16 @ Texas Tech
10/23 Nebraska
10/30 @ Kansas State
11/6 Baylor
11/13 @ Texas
11/20 @ Kansas
11/27 Oklahoma
Texas
9/4 @ Rice
9/11 Wyoming
9/18 UCLA
9/25 Florida Atlantic
10/2 Oklahoma
10/16 @ Nebraska
10/23 Iowa State
10/30 Baylor
11/6 @ Kansas State
11/13 Oklahoma State
11/20 @ Texas Tech
11/27 Texas A&M
Texas A&M
9/4 Stephen F Austin
9/11 Louisiana Tech
9/18 Florida International
10/2 @ Oklahoma State
10/9 Arkansas
10/16 Missouri
10/23 @ Kansas
10/30 Texas Tech
11/6 Oklahoma
11/13 @ Baylor
11/20 Nebraska
11/27 @ Texas
Texas Tech
9/4 SMU
9/11 @ New Mexico
9/18 TCU
9/25 Houston
10/2 @ Iowa State
10/16 Oklahoma State
10/23 @ Colorado
10/30 @ Texas A&M
11/6 Missouri
11/13 @ Oklahoma
11/20 Texas
11/27 Baylor
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Tuesday, 2. February 2010
Be sure to check out my 2010 Heisman Hopefuls
And my 2010 NFL Mock Draft
10. Philip Rivers, QB, North Carolina State
Rivers has had a stellar career in the NFL. He has an even better career at NC State. We’re talking about 13,000+ yards passing. This was not in a system that produces statistical wonder year in and year out either. Rivers threw for 4400 yards and 34 td’s in his senior season. Rivers had a much better season than Manning or White had in 2003, yet somehow he did not finish in the top 4 of the Heisman voting.
9. Ed Reed, S, Miami
Ed Reed was the leader of one of the best teams that we have seen in the past 25 years. Reed was a consensus All-American in 2000 and 2001. He led the nation with nine int’s in 2001, returning three of those for touchdowns. He is best remembered for his play against Boston College when he stripped the ball from his own teammate and took an interception back for a touchdown that sealed the win and ultimately gave them the opportunity to win a National Championship that year.
8. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Colt could have moved up this list if only he had not gotten injured against Alabama. Colt started off running on all cylinders as a freshman. He had troubles as a sophomore, being careless with the ball. His junior and senior seasons though were two to remember. Colt set the completion percentage record for a single season, completing over 77% of his passes in 2008. He also set the record for most wins by a qb with 45 career wins. He finished with nearly 10,000 yards passing and over 1,000 yards rushing.
7. Deangelo Williams, RB, Memphis
Why Deangelo Williams does not get more resect for his college career is beyond me. Anyone that was paying attention knew that Williams would be a better pro than Reggie Bush, who won the Heisman Deangelo’s senior season. Williams finished up his senior season with nearly 2,000 yards rushing, over 200 yards receiving. For his carrer, Williams had over 7,500 all purpose yards, which is the NCAA record. He also finished with 6,000 yards rushing, fourth on the all time list.
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh
Fitzgerald was the master of the acrobatic catch in college, still is in the NFL actually. He almost came out of nowhere to steal the Heisman away from Jason White of Oklahoma. In only 26 career games with Pitt, Fitzgerald caught 161 passes for 2677 yards and 34 td’s. He holds the NCAA record with at least one touchdown catch in 18 straight games.
5. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Tebow is the media darling of the last few years. Once we have time to get away from the 24/7 coverage of Tebow, I think we will find that this is a nice spot for him on this list. He was an exceptional player, but he did not have the ability to single-handedly take over a game that some of the others on this list showed throughout their careers. Tebow finished with nearly 10,000 yards passing and just shy of 3,000 yards rushing.
4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Calvin “Megatron” Johnson is number four on our list. This is out of pure unbridled ability. Johnson did not play on a top team in college. Georgia Tech was not in the BCS hunt. Johnson still managed to steal the highlights show every weekend. Johnson was All-ACC in 04, 05 and 06. He was All-American in 05 and 06. As a junior, his last season with Georgia Tech, Johnson tallied 76 grabs for 1202 yards and 15 td’s. He’s 6′5″ 235 and runs a 4.4. He has the total package.
3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
McFadden was part of the revolutionary wildcat package at Arkansas with Felix Jones. McFadden was the better player in college, though Jones has had the better pro career thus far. For his three yar college career, McFadden had 4590 yards and 41 touchdowns. His junior season saw him go for 1800 yards and 16 td’s. Darren finished 2nd in the Heisman voting in 2006 and 2007.
2. Reggie Bush, RB, USC
You have to put Reggie Bush up this high. He was a great college running back/returner. He was not nearly as great as ESPN wanted us to believe, as we can now see in retrospect as his NFL career sputters, but he did have a great college career. Bush won the Heisman as a junior before entering the NFL Draft. He also finished in the top 5 of the Heisman voting in his sophomore year. Bush finished his career at USC with 6541 all purpose yards.
1. Vince Young, QB, Texas
Vince Young was the best player on the best team of the past ten years. Young finished up 30-2 as a college starting quarterback. If he was starting the game, you could almost mark it down as a win. Young was the first qb ever to pass for 3,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards in the same season. He finished 2nd in the Heisman race in 2005. He won a National Championship. In the MNC game, he passed for 267 yards, ran for 200 more and led the Longhorns back from a seemingly insurmountable 4th quarter deficit. Vince Young was the best player that college football has seen this century.
Best of the Rest
Matt Leinart – Product of the system
Michael Crabtree – Left too soon
Adrian Peterson – Injured too often
Eric Crouch – Product of the system
Cedric Benson – Not quite enough juice
Pat White – Played in the Big East
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Tuesday, 26. January 2010
2010 Heisman Candidates
Jacquizz Rodgers
Rodgers has to be considered a Heisman candidate. He ran for 1440 yards and 21 td’s on 273 attempts. He also chipped in with 522 yards and another td on 78 receptions. Rodgers and his brother are pretty much the entire offense at Oregon State. If it happens, it is usually one of them doing it. Jacquizz is extremely durable for his size. He can take a large dose of carries and not be slowed down. He will get a ton of them this year, and even though the Beavers may be an average team, he will roll up a ton of stats.
Christian Ponder
Christian Ponder is a Heisman contender. He was on his way to an All-American type season this past year until an injury derailed him for the last three games of the season. Ponder still ended up with 2717 yards and 14 td’s with only 7 int’s. Florida State has some receivers in which to throw the ball. Ponder will be hungry after ending his season on such a disappointing note. He was only improving as the weeks went by last year. I feel like Ponder is poised for a monster season this year.
Jeremiah Masoli
Masoli will again lead the Ducks attack this year. He does it through the air and on the ground. Masoli had over 2100 yards in the air and another 600 yards on the ground. He accounted for 23 td’s, all while missing one game. The Oregon offense will be potent again this year, and Masoli will pile up the stats, but the main reason he may not win will be the next guy in this list.
LaMichael James
How did the state of Texas ever let this guy get away? You would think someone would have been able to reel him in. James had a dynamic first season in Oregon. The state of Oregon has two of the leading candidates for the Heisman trophy at running back, both from Texas high schools. James ended up with over 1500 yards on the ground on only 230 carries. He only carried the ball eleven times total in the first two games, so just imagine what his stats could have looked like had he been playing the whole wasy. He will be playing the whole way this year, and he will get his yards, but Masoli and James may split some votes if they both have the season expected of them.
Dion Lewis
Lewis grew on me towards the end of the year last year. The more you watched him, the more you noticed it was not the system, but it was him being able to make tacklers miss and get all of those yards. He was another one that got away from some of the bigger schools. He will be back wreaking havoc in the Big East again this year after a freshman campaign a year ago that saw him get nearly 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. Keep an eye on this year as teams try to key on him a little bit more to see how he handles it.
Kellen Moore
Moore is probably not the most talented guy in the world. True, if he were playing in a BCS Conference, we wouldn’t even have him here. Heck, he may not even be starting for a lot of BCS teams, but the kid did put up the state last year. You have to figure with the schedule that Bloise State has that Moore is going to throw up monster stats again and the Broncos are going to win nearly all of their games. This should be reason enough for any intelligent observer to put him here knowing how voters vote.
Andrew Luck
Luck is a guy I watched multiple times at Houston Stratford High School. He willed his so-so team to near state championship runs two years in a row. He is a competitor. He is extremely intelligent. He is a winner. All of the components you look for in a quarterback. Luck will not put up the great numbers probably, but he will overwhelm you with his innate ability to quarterback a football team. He threw for 2500 yards and 13 td’s last year, but his stats do not begin to tell his worth to the Stanford Cardinal football team.
Terrelle Pryor
Yeah, I know…everyone is tired of waiting for Pryor to get past mediocre and become even a good quarterback before we put him in this conversation. That’s not always waht the Heisman is about though. Look at this year as prime example number one. Ingram was not a special back, nor did he have sparkling numbers, but that is not what the Hesiman is about any more. Pryor is on Ohio State, one of the big time schools in college football. He plays the most important position. He can make breath-taking plays occasionally. Those are the things that will get him some Heisman consideration, especially is the Buckeyes do well as a team. He did end up passing for over 2,000 yards and running for over 600 yards, which is nothing to sneeze at. Where he needs to work is on limiting his turnovers and improving his decision making skills in the clutch. If he can do that, you can mark him down for a spot in New York.
AJ Green
Green followed up an amazing freshman year with a decent sophomore year. His numbers fell a bit from 950 yards receiver to 800 and 8 td’s to 6. That had a lot to do with the offense as a whole. They did not have much going on that side of the ball last year. Losing Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford were obviously big blows for the Bulldogs. Hopefully with another year under his belt Green will do a better job of harnessing his immense talent and Georgia will find a way to get him the ball. He likely will not be around for senior campaign, so this is his year to shine. However, how many receivers have won this award without some major special teams contributions? Green is fighting an uphill battle.
Ryan Mallett
Talk about a strong armed Texas kid. It’s amazing how many of the quarterbacks around the country are from Texas these days. Ponder, Luck and Mallett all grew up in the Lone Star state. Mallett has the biggest cannon that I have probably ever seen as a college qb. He effortlessly flicks it 45 yards down the field on a line. He does not have any mobility at all which will not help if he is to get into the thick of the Heisman race. He will have to do all his damage through the air. He ended up throwing for over 3600 yards and 30 td’s. IF he can duplicate that, then he should be in the race.
Ryan Williams
Williams is a darkhorse candidate. He really came on at the end of the year last year finishing up with 180 yards and four td’s against Virginia, then following that up with another hundred yard game against a tough Tennessee defense in the bowl game. Williams has legitimate NFL skill at the running back position. Virginia Tech loves to run the ball. The Hokies are always in the top 15-20. If they can put it together and make a run for a top 5 slot this year, with Williams leading the way, I expect he will get his name in the race.
Jacory Harris
Harris looked like he was ready to get in the Heisman hunt last year, but he faltered a little towards the middle of the season. After throwing for over 650 yards against Florida State and Georgia Tech to open the season with two big wins, Harris came crashing back down to earth in a loss to Virginia Tech. Harris threw four interceptions in a late season loss to North Carolina. If he can stay away from throwing so many interceptions and Miami can become a national contender again…those are some huge if’s…then he will have a shot. He went for 3300 yards and 24 td’s last year. I exect much the same, if not more, with better decision making this year.
Best of the rest
Case Keenum, QB, Houston – He will have the stats, but he really needs to win nearly every game to have a shot.
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama – No way will he win it back to back, especially with Richardson getting more and more carries.
Andy Dalton, QB, TCU – Dalton could slide into the hopefuls category if he has an abdolutely monster year.
Garrett Gilbert, QB, Texas – too soon for Gilbert, though he will put up good stats and win a lot.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada – Nevada is not going to have a Heisman winner, but he will put up some stats though.
Jake Locker, QB, Washington – Not going to have the stats, though he is a nice NFL prospect.
Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia – Late entry to the list. Devine will need a top 10 Mountaineers team to get in the mix.
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
