Recruiting VS. Final Ranking
Sunday, 14. February 2010
How strong is the correlation between recruiting and your final AP ranking?
I have decided to find out using some of the colleges that have had stellar recruiting classes throughout the last decade. Is college football recruiting the most important ingredient to a successful program?
Let’s take a look first at the team recruiting rankings since 2002 according to Scout.
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 1 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 8.4 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 13 | 10 | 9.8 |
| Michigan | 19 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 9.1 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| Florida | 20 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 9.9 |
| Florida St | 6 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| Miami | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 24 | 9.9 |
| LSU | 15 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7.5 |
| Georgia | 9 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 35 | 8 | 11.5 |
| A&M | 8 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 15 | 2 | 15.4 |
| Notre Dame | 13 | 5 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 23 | 14.5 |
| Alabama | 37 | 45 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Penn State | 16 | 50 | 12 | 28 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 11 | 22.9 |
| USC | 12 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 5.1 |
I decided to start with the Final AP ranking starting in 2003. I felt that 2002 was too early to start to get any sort of a read on how the 2002 recruiting class is affecting the outcome of games. 2003 may be too easrly as well, but I went ahead and made that the first year. By that time, the players from the 2002 class at least have the chance to be a sophomore and contributing. In the case that a team received zero AP votes, I chose a standard 40th place. This is actually probably too good of a ranking as the AP usually has others receiving votes that place them well into the 30’s. I did not want to let those years be too detrimental though, so I decided on 40 as the number.
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 12 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6.7 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 11.1 |
| Michigan | 6 | 14 | 28 | 8 | 18 | 40 | 40 | 22 |
| Ohio State | 4 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| Florida | 24 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 11.4 |
| Florida St | 11 | 15 | 23 | 40 | 40 | 21 | 34 | 26.3 |
| Miami | 5 | 11 | 17 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 19 | 24.6 |
| LSU | 2 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 17 | 10.4 |
| Georgia | 7 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 13.6 |
| Tennessee | 15 | 13 | 40 | 25 | 12 | 40 | 40 | 26.4 |
| A&M | 40 | 28 | 40 | 30 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 36.9 |
| Notre Dame | 40 | 40 | 9 | 17 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 32.3 |
| Alabama | 40 | 40 | 8 | 40 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| Penn State | 40 | 40 | 40 | 24 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 26.9 |
| USC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 5.1 |
So, who are the winners and losers in this particular assessment?
Teams that out-performed their recruit ranking over the last eight years?
Texas and Ohio State.
Both have managed to finish a few spots higher, on average, than one would expect just looking at their recruiting rankings.
Teams that were close to or barely missed performing exactly as their recruiting class rankings would suggest?
USC, Penn State, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma
USC was particularly impressive from this group. It is hard to live up to the expectations they have year in and year out. They have recruited flawlessly and their seasons have reflected that in every year except for this past year. Alabama did not really start to kick it into high gear in recruiting until Saban took over, and they were rewarded soon thereafter with another National Championship. LSU, USC and Oklahoma have all recruited too well to ever finish outside of the Top 20, so those seasons have to be considered major disappointments.
Teams that have tragically underperformed?
Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, Tennessee and Michigan
Notre Dame and Texas A&M lead the charge here. How have the Irish and Aggies done so bad over the past eight years? A&M particularly has fell short of expectations. The Aggies have had eight straight years of recruiting classes inside the top 26. They have had seven straight years of finishing outside of the top 26 in the final AP Poll. I am not sure how this has happened, but it has to be a major disappointment. Notre Dame is not too far behind, but they have at least finished in the Top 20 a time or two over the past few years. Tennessee should be a perennial top 15 team, yet they have finished outside of the AP Poll entirely three of the last five years. Miami and Florida State are still recruiting like a Top 10 team, but they have been out of the limelight in college football for the past five years.
