Monday, 22. February 2010
The Sports Librarian’s College Football Pre-Season Top 25 for 2010
1. Ohio State
The Good – Nine starters back on offense, one of them being Terrelle Pryor
The Bad – Penn State at home and Iowa on the road in back to back weeks
The Ugly – Only two starters back on defense
2. Oregon
The Good – Masoli and James are back to lead a high powered offense
The Bad – Defense gave up over 34 points per game in the last five
The Ugly – Schedule has them @Tenn, @USC, @Cal, @Oregon State
3. Texas
The Good – Curtis Brown, Aaron Williams and Chykie Brown in the secondary
The Bad – QB Garrett Gilbert has not made a college start as of yet.
The Ugly – With Jordan Shipley gone, there is no sure thing at receiver
4. Alabama
The Good – Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson are back at running back
The Bad – The offense is one dimensional, as Greg McElroy plays it safe
The Ugly – The defense took a hit when Kareem Jackson and Rolando McClain left early
5. Penn State
The Good – Dominating defense smothered LSU in the bowl game; RB Evan Royster is back
The Bad – The weak Big Ten could have had something to do with PSU’s record last year
The Ugly – @Alabama, @Iowa, @Ohio State; That’s three ats against top 10 opponents
6. Nebraska
The Good – Did you see the Cornhuskers’ defense destroy Arizona in their bowl game?
The Bad – Ndamukong Suh ran out of eligibility
The Ugly – The Nebraska offense; Texas exposed the Huskers offense, but it was bad all year
7. North Carolina
The Good – Three first round picks starting on defense; lots of starters back on offense
The Bad – Lots of starters back on a pretty bad offense though
The Ugly – Tough schedule, not much explosiveness on offense
8. TCU
The Good – TCU has earned respect as a power to deal with in college football
The Bad – TCU lost to Boise State when it could have really put a stamp on the season
The Ugly – The schedule is again just too weak even if they go undefeated
9. Iowa
The Good – Ricky Stanzi and Adrian Clayborn are both going to be back this year
The Bad – The o-line has holes, a weak Big Ten(outside of PSU and OSU) won’t help the schedule
The Ugly – A lot had to go right for the Hawkeyes to end up where they did last year
10. Boise State
The Good – Boise State went undefeated and beat a capable TCU, also has most starters returning
The Bad – An early season game with Virginia Tech
The Ugly – The conference they play in will never get Boise State any respect
11. Georgia
The Good – Georgia looked good at the end of the season, AJ Green & two young rb’s are returning
The Bad – Mark Richt has recruited too well to be as bad as they were last year
The Ugly – Have to replace the starting qb as well as half the defense
12. USC
The Good – Matt Barkley is back at qb; USC has a ton of 5 star recruits to help the cuase
The Bad – Pete Carroll got out of town
The Ugly – The NCAA may be about to come down hard on the Trojans
13. LSU
The Good – The defense will once again be top of the line
The Bad – The offense was shut down against every good defense, and even some of the bad defenses
The Ugly – Only nine combined starters coming back; tough game against North Carolina early
14. Virginia Tech
The Good – Ryan Williams might be the best running back in the nation; Tyrod Taylor is solid
The Bad – The game against Boise State is a no-win situation for the Hokies
The Ugly – They need to be able to generate more offense to get back in the national title picture
15. Miami FL
The Good – The Hurricanes are running a tight ship these days; Jacory Harris is their best qb in some time
The Bad – RB Cooper is likely out for the season with a leg injury
The Ugly – With games @Ohio State, @Pitt and @Georgia Tech it’s tough to see better than a 3 loss season
16. Oklahoma
The Good – The Sooners play in a weak Big 12 right now
The Bad – Landry Jones did not look very good last year most of the time
The Ugly – The OL has seen too many injuries and transfers; they are going to be the weak link this year again
17. Oregon State
The Good – The Rodgers brothers are back at rb and wr
The Bad – QB Sean Canfield has gone on to the NFL
The Ugly – With a new qb and not many other threats outside the Rodgers duo, the offense might suffer
18. Stanford
The Good – Andrew Luck might be the #1 pick in the NFL draft next year
The Bad – Toby Gerhart will not be back there to pound the opposing defenses this year
The Ugly – Not enough speed on defense, so they just give up too many points in most games
19. Florida
The Good – The Gators recruit well and have rb’s Demps, Rainey and Moody back this year
The Bad – DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Joe Haden and FS Major Wright all jumped to the NFL
The Ugly – Tim Tebow is gone and the replacement has not seen much action at all
20. Arkansas
The Good – Ryan Mallet will be in the Heisman race
The Bad – The Razorbacks have the worst pass defense in the conference
The Ugly – The schedule has too many teams on it that are simply better than Arkansas
21. Georgia Tech
The Good – Paul Johnson never graduates, so the offense will remain potent
The Bad – Demaryius Thomas leaving early tkes away the one deep threat the Yellow Jackets had.
The Ugly – Jonathan Dwyer was the man that really made the offense click
22. Utah
The Good – The Utes showed they were not a one hit wonder
The Bad – Pittsburgh right off the bat is a stiff challenge
The Ugly – TCU, the one really good team they played, absolutely worked the Utes over
23. Florida State
The Good – The Seminoles always recruit speed and athletes; QB Ponder is a Heisman candidate
The Bad – The Noles have not really been very good for a while, so the luster has worn off
The Ugly – Bobby Bowden is gone; Florida State was nothing before Bowden
24. West Virginia
The Good – Noel Devine is back and is going to put up a lot of yards and touchdowns this year
The Bad – 2-3 on the road last year; LSU, UCONN and Pitt on the road this year
The Ugly – There is no Pat White(not even a Jarret Brown) at qb to compliment the great running back
25. Houston
The Good – Case Keenum, Tyrone Carrier, Charles Sims, Patrick Edwards, James Cleveland on offense
The Bad – The Cougars seem to have a let down game or two every year (UTEP, Air Force)
The Ugly – The wors rush defense in the league(112th nationally) will not get any better this year
Didn’t quite make it in
Pitt – Dion Lewis and not much else
Texas A&M – Jerrod Johnson and not much else
Auburn – Razzle dazzle can only get you so far
California – Tedford will find a way to field a good squad
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Wednesday, 17. February 2010
2010 College Football’s Biggest Games of the Year
These are the sixteen games that will decide who will be in the National Championship hunt and who will not.
College fans need to mark these dates down on your calendar now and get your tickets ready.
(edit: The games are just listed in chronological order, not in order by importance)
#1 North Carolina at LSU, September 4
This one should be a defensive struggle. Both teams had their share of problems on offense last year. North Carolina returns nearly their entire
defense, which was one of the tops in the land a year ago. LSU returns only two of their defensive front seven, so the Tar Heels
may be able to use a little smash mouth football on the Tigers. North Carolina has three probable future first round picks on their defense(Marvin
Austin, Bruce Carter and Deunta Williams), so LSU better get something together on the offensive side of things to have a shot.
My prediction: North Carolina 20 – LSU 16
#2 Oregon State at TCU, September 4
TCU has shown that it can play with teams from the BCS in the past few years. The Horned Frogs will have most of their offense back, including
QB Andy Dalton, WR Jeremy Kerley and All-American candidate Marcus Cannon at offensive tackle. TCU should have the advantage on offense
with so many pieces coming back. Oregon State had Jacquizz and James Rodgers, so they always have a shot. TCU is losing both starting
cornerbacks, but unfortunately the Beavers are breaking in a new quarterback after All-Pac Ten Ryan Canfield graduated. TCU’s front seven
will be stout again, so the Beavers may find it rough sledding on the ground. If the Rodgers brothers can get in open space, they have a shot.
My prediction: TCU 31 – Oregon State 27
#3 Penn State at Alabama, September 11
Nice way to really get the 2010 season kicked off and running. Two of the traditional powers in college football meet early. Alabama
is coming off of another National Championship. Penn State is coming off of a respectable 11-2 season. The Crimson Tide’s defense was gutted
when LB Rolando McClain and CB Kareem Jackson both decided to leave for the NFL draft. Terrence Cody and Javier Arenas running out of eligibility means
that Alabama may be soft on the defensive side of the ball until they can get the newcomers to gel. The Tide’s offense will not be flashy, with a lot
of Ingram and Richardson up the middle. Penn State on the other hand has seven players back from a defense that only gave up as many as 21 points
twice all year. With RB Evan Royster deciding to return to school one more year and a stellar offensive line, we could be looking at an upset here.
My prediction: Penn state 23 – Alabama 12
#4 Miami at Ohio State, September 11
Miami is on the brink of becoming a power again. Heisman contender Jacory Harris is back for his junior season after throwing for 3300 yards and 24 td’s
as a sophomore. The Canes will need to replace running back Javarris James and Graig Cooper who could miss the entire season due to injury. Damien
Berry rushed for over 600 yards after not getting a carry in the first four games, so he could be the man. Ohio State has a Heisman contender of their
own in Terrelle Pryor. Pryor threw for 2000 yards and ran for about 780 more yards. This is his junior season, so he is ready for his real breakout year.
What better stage to start Heisman campaign than against Miami? Brandon Saine, RB, is back to help lessen the load for Pryor. The Buckeyes defense is
always stout under Jim Tressell and with seven starters back, including FS Jermale Hines who turned down NFL money to return for his senior season,
The Buckeyes should rank in the top five in defense again this year.
My prediction: Ohio State 27 – Miami 23
#5 Miami at Pittsburgh, September 23
Miami will be upset after losing to Ohio State. Pittsburgh has Dion Lewis. The Panthers will be breaking in a new quarterback. Bill Stull is out of
eligibility. Miami will have the added experience of playing in the big games after the trip to Ohio State.
My prediction: Miami 38 – Pittsburgh 20
#6 Oklahoma at Cincinnati, September 25
Oklahoma had a very unlucky season this past year. Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham both went down to inury. Now they have both decided to go pro.
What do the Sooners have waiting to fill in those gaps? Landry Jones played adequately last year as a freshman filling in for Bradford at qb.
Demarco Murray is back at running back. He is a potential first round pick in the draft. The Sooners are going to lose a ton of NFL talent on defense.
Gerald McCoy and Dominique Franks both left early. There are talented players to fill in, but the Sooners will be thin. Cincinnati was exposed a bit by
Florida in their bowl game. The Bearcats lose Mardy Gilyard, their best receiver and best player, and also quarterback Tony Pike. Zach Collaros
filled in nicely at qb for Pike when Pike was injured, so that loss doesn’t hurt as much. It will be tough to replace Gilyard. Brian Kelly, the orchestrator
of the Cincinnati turnaround is now coaching at Notre Dame, so I expect the Bearcats to go back down a notch.
My prediction: Oklahoma 31 – Cincinnati 20
#7 Virginia Tech vs Boise State, October 2
This is the game that Boise State has been wanting. They want to show they can play with the big boys. The Broncos are coming off of an undefeated
season and return 21 starters. What’s not to like? Well, they do play in a weak conference, and they did not really get to prove themselves in the
bowl game either. They will be fired up and ready. Kellen Moore directs the offense, and he is a Heisman contender. Virginia Tech always plays good
defense. The Hokies have one of the most dangerous running backs in America coming back in Ryan Williams. Williams was all conference as a freshman.
He will only be better this year. Senior Tyrod Taylor at quarterback is solid if not spectacular. With only four returning starters on defense, I would
expect Boise State to be able to move on Virginia Tech a bit, but Frank Beamer always has his defenses ready to play.
My prediction: Virginia Tech 34 – Boise State 21
#8 Oklahoma vs Texas, October 2
The Red River Rivalry. It is always a big game for these two, but it could have national title implications again this year for one or both.
Texas will probably be in the thick of the hunt if they can get by the Sooners. The same could be said of the Sooners though too, particularly
if they win the game against Cincinnati. Texas has Garrett Gilbert trying to fill the enormous shoes left by Colt McCoy, winningest qb in
NCAA football history. Texas loses Sergio Kindle and Earl Thomas to the NFL. THe Longhorns lose Jordan Shipley to the NFL. This one will be close.
The Horns are more talented right now, but the Sooners are not breaking in a new qb. This one will hinge on Texas finding a couple of receivers
to catch the ball. The Horns should have a top 10 defense again, but they will need to score a few to beat the Sooners.
My prediction: Texas 23 – Oklahoma 20
#9 Florida at Alabama, October 2
October 2nd is when things really get fun this year in college football. Three huge games on the menu. Alabama, as already discussed, has
Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and a steady Greg Mcelroy. Florida loses Tim Tebow and a host of players on defense. Of course the Gators
recruit with the best of them. Look for John Brantley to take over at qb and perform well. He has a future in the NFL. With Jeff Demps, Emmanuel
Moody and Chris Rainey back, the Gators will lean heavily on their running game this season. Alabama is pretty good at stopping one dimensional teams though.
My prediction: Alabama 30 – Florida 17
#10 Texas at Nebraska, October 16
There is no Ndamukong Suh this time around for Nebraska. I get the feeling that the Cornhuskers sudden defensive resurgence may have more to do with
Bo Pelini calling the shots than it does with any one player. Cody Green take over at quarterback for Nebraska. Texas absolutely manhandled the
Nebraska offense in the Big 12 Championship game. While I would not expect it to be that bad again, I do think Texas has too much speed for Nebraska.
Nebraska has the schemes to stop Texas, but I think a different Texas offense will be out on the field by this time as the long range passing game opens
up more and more with Gilbert getting comfortable. Alex Henery will get a lot of work for Nebraska.
My prediction: Texas 27 – Nebraska 12
#11 Georgia at Florida, October 30
Florida is out of the hunt by this time, but that does not mean that Georgia can’t make some noise after a down 2009 year. The Bulldogs have eight very
winnable games on their schedule leading up to the game in Gainesville against the Gators. Washaun Ealy and Caleb King combined for over 1300 yards
for the Bulldogs and both are back this year. Losing Joe Cox is probably a blessing in disguise, as he was limited in his ability. They have one of
the most dangerous men in college football in WR AJ Green, ready to unload on college football this year. Georgia won four of the last five a year ago,
including wins over Auburn and top ten Georgia Tech before pasting Texas A&M in their bowl game. Georgia was young
and could be ready to make noise this year. Florida will be ready though, as they know they can get into the championship as a one loss team.
My prediction: Florida 31 – Georgia 28
#12 Oregon at USC, October 30
Oregon beat the foll out of USC last year. USC didn not really blow anyone away towards the end of the season either. Most suspected they would
start to gel eventually and find their groove, but it never happened. Matt Barkley is back for his sophomore campaign, so he should be improved.
USC is always full of five star talent, it is just a matter of getting them to play together for 12 games. Joe McKnight and Damian Williams both went pro.
The defensive front seven is stout, but the defensive backfield lost a lot. Oregon has Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James as two Heisman trophy contenders.
They didn’t really need much else last year to beat USC 47-20. Masoli threw for 200 and ran for 160 as James ran for 180 yards. USC will need to tighten
up their run defense to stand a chance.
My prediction: USC 38 – Oregon 35
#13 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, November 4
Georgia Tech is losing quite a bit on offense. They run the spread option, so yhou can usually plug anyone into the spots and have a productive team.
Jonathan Dwyer though is an excellent fullback option in that offense, and he will now be running in the NFL. Their big wide receiver threadt Demaryius Thomas
is also going to the NFL. Jonathan Nesbitt is back to quarterback the offense though, so they do have somethin to work with. Georgia Tech has 15 starters
returning, which could have been much more had four of their players not opted to go pro. The Yellow Jacket fans will be left wondering what could have been,
but they should have another good season. The Yellow Jackets eeked out a close one over the Hokies at home last year. This year it is in Blacksburg, which
is alwasy a difficult place to play. Ryan Williams and Tyrod Taylor will be clicking on all cylinders by this time in the season.
My prediction: Virginia Tech 30 – Georgia Tech 27
#14 Alabama at LSU, November 6
Alabama and LSU will both be tested by this time in the season. They both hope to still be playing for a spot in the SEC Championship game. The Crimson Tide were able to squeeze by the Tigers at home last year after being down 15-10 going into the 4th quarter. This one will be in Baton Rouge. LSU is looking for a little payback. LSU could be playing their way back into contention after the early season loss to North Carolina. The same could be said of Alabama. This could be for the SEC West Title. Alabama will rely on their running game. LSU is good at stopping the run. Jordan Jefferson should be comfortable leading the team by this point in his junior season. You might think that this one is LSU’s to lose.
My prediction: Alabama 17 – LSU 14
#15 Penn State at Ohio State, November 13
Talk about a game that could have a ton riding on it. Ohio State and Penn State could have MNC implications this year for both teams. Penn State, if they can get by Alabama early in the year, might just be able to send Joe Paterno out on top. They will need to be able to get by a stingy Buckeye defense in Columbus though. Terrelle Pryor will be able to put the team on his shoulders and will them to victory a time or two this season. The home field is a huge advantage in this case.
My prediction: Ohio State 24 – Penn State 10
#16 Ohio State at Iowa, November 20
Having gotten past Penn State and Miami already, the Buckeyes are but one victory over Iowa away from the promised land this year. Pryor has brought them back on some game winning drives no doubt a few times already. Iowa has possibly the best defense in the Big Ten. If the Hawkeyes don’t then the Buckeyes probably do. Ricky Stanzi is back at qb for Iowa to revive some of the 4th quarter magic that he unveiled on the nation last year. Marvin McNutt brings his cool name back to the receiver position to catch some more deflected passes for long improbable touchdowns. Iowa just might have used up all of their luck this past year though.
My prediction: Ohio State 27 – Iowa 17
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -
Sunday, 14. February 2010
How strong is the correlation between recruiting and your final AP ranking?
I have decided to find out using some of the colleges that have had stellar recruiting classes throughout the last decade. Is college football recruiting the most important ingredient to a successful program?
Let’s take a look first at the team recruiting rankings since 2002 according to Scout.
|
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
Avg |
| Texas |
1 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
8.4 |
| Oklahoma |
2 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
30 |
13 |
10 |
9.8 |
| Michigan |
19 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
14 |
9.1 |
| Ohio State |
3 |
25 |
11 |
7 |
13 |
16 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
| Florida |
20 |
4 |
8 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
21 |
9.9 |
| Florida St |
6 |
12 |
4 |
3 |
12 |
33 |
8 |
18 |
12 |
| Miami |
4 |
6 |
3 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
3 |
24 |
9.9 |
| LSU |
15 |
2 |
2 |
19 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
7.5 |
| Georgia |
9 |
11 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
7.5 |
| Tennessee |
5 |
6 |
9 |
1 |
24 |
4 |
35 |
8 |
11.5 |
| A&M |
8 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
26 |
15 |
2 |
15.4 |
| Notre Dame |
13 |
5 |
30 |
27 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
23 |
14.5 |
| Alabama |
37 |
45 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
22 |
1 |
2 |
20 |
| Penn State |
16 |
50 |
12 |
28 |
6 |
19 |
41 |
11 |
22.9 |
| USC |
12 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
9 |
5.1 |
I decided to start with the Final AP ranking starting in 2003. I felt that 2002 was too early to start to get any sort of a read on how the 2002 recruiting class is affecting the outcome of games. 2003 may be too easrly as well, but I went ahead and made that the first year. By that time, the players from the 2002 class at least have the chance to be a sophomore and contributing. In the case that a team received zero AP votes, I chose a standard 40th place. This is actually probably too good of a ranking as the AP usually has others receiving votes that place them well into the 30’s. I did not want to let those years be too detrimental though, so I decided on 40 as the number.
|
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
Avg |
| Texas |
12 |
5 |
1 |
13 |
10 |
4 |
2 |
6.7 |
| Oklahoma |
3 |
3 |
22 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
26 |
11.1 |
| Michigan |
6 |
14 |
28 |
8 |
18 |
40 |
40 |
22 |
| Ohio State |
4 |
20 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
7 |
| Florida |
24 |
26 |
12 |
1 |
13 |
1 |
3 |
11.4 |
| Florida St |
11 |
15 |
23 |
40 |
40 |
21 |
34 |
26.3 |
| Miami |
5 |
11 |
17 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
19 |
24.6 |
| LSU |
2 |
16 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
28 |
17 |
10.4 |
| Georgia |
7 |
7 |
10 |
23 |
2 |
13 |
33 |
13.6 |
| Tennessee |
15 |
13 |
40 |
25 |
12 |
40 |
40 |
26.4 |
| A&M |
40 |
28 |
40 |
30 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
36.9 |
| Notre Dame |
40 |
40 |
9 |
17 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
32.3 |
| Alabama |
40 |
40 |
8 |
40 |
40 |
6 |
1 |
25 |
| Penn State |
40 |
40 |
40 |
24 |
27 |
8 |
9 |
26.9 |
| USC |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
22 |
5.1 |
So, who are the winners and losers in this particular assessment?
Teams that out-performed their recruit ranking over the last eight years?
Texas and Ohio State.
Both have managed to finish a few spots higher, on average, than one would expect just looking at their recruiting rankings.
Teams that were close to or barely missed performing exactly as their recruiting class rankings would suggest?
USC, Penn State, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma
USC was particularly impressive from this group. It is hard to live up to the expectations they have year in and year out. They have recruited flawlessly and their seasons have reflected that in every year except for this past year. Alabama did not really start to kick it into high gear in recruiting until Saban took over, and they were rewarded soon thereafter with another National Championship. LSU, USC and Oklahoma have all recruited too well to ever finish outside of the Top 20, so those seasons have to be considered major disappointments.
Teams that have tragically underperformed?
Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, Tennessee and Michigan
Notre Dame and Texas A&M lead the charge here. How have the Irish and Aggies done so bad over the past eight years? A&M particularly has fell short of expectations. The Aggies have had eight straight years of recruiting classes inside the top 26. They have had seven straight years of finishing outside of the top 26 in the final AP Poll. I am not sure how this has happened, but it has to be a major disappointment. Notre Dame is not too far behind, but they have at least finished in the Top 20 a time or two over the past few years. Tennessee should be a perennial top 15 team, yet they have finished outside of the AP Poll entirely three of the last five years. Miami and Florida State are still recruiting like a Top 10 team, but they have been out of the limelight in college football for the past five years.
Posted in College Sports by houstonlibrarian -